Atlanta Fed sees GDP at 5.1%. NY Fed model moves higher to 3.8%
Both the Atlanta Fed and NY Fed GBP models are out with the two moving closer together.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model now projects 5.1% growth in the 3Q which is down from 5.7% on August 25. In their own words they say:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 5.1percent on August 27, down from 5.7 percent on August 25. After recent releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 23.6 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.39 percentage points to -0.90 percentage points.
Meanwhile the NY Fed Nowcast model saw the growth rise from 3.48% last Friday to 3.79% this week. They note that a positive surprise for manufactures shipments of durable goods data accounted for most of the increased this week. Below is the line by line changes impact to the models calculations.
Although the two models are 1.4% from each other, they have narrowed that spread at least.
This week Bank of America slashed its GDP estimates for the 3Q to 4.5% from 7.0%. Goldman Sachs last week cut their growth estimates to 5.5% from 9% previously.
In the fourth quarter expectations are that growth will pick up in part driven by inventory replenishment (still a big question mark). Overall economist expect growth around 7% this year which would be the strongest since 1984. Moreover, the Covid pandemic may have also increase productivity from capital expenditure investments.
