At this time last year, I had Four Trades for 2012

  1. USD/CAD to hit 1.12 – I expected a big breakout, higher or lower, on a wedge on the USD/CAD chart at the time. Result: the wedge broke, USD/CAD moved 200 pips and fizzled. Nothing happened in 2012 in USD/CAD, impossible to make money in that pair and it’s fitting that it closes the year near parity, as I told Reuters.
  2. Sell the Swiss franc – I strongly believed the SNB would hold the line and they did however the franc did nothing in 2012, although you might have earned positive carry on CHF shorts.
  3. Buy gold at $1350, sell at $1750-1800 – The low for the year was $1530 so this trade never really happened, although selling in the $1750-1800 range was a great trade.
  4. Sell the euro – The euro finishes the year high but that isn’t going to stop me from taking credit for this one because it was down more than 1000 pips before the rebound after July.

Overall, it’s a mixed bag. I was bearish on the optimistic growth forecasts at the start of 2012 and that was the right call. Over the following weeks and months those ideas all developed and changed.

This is ForexLive, not ForexTwelveMonthsFromNow; when the facts change, we change.

Never fall in love with a trade an analyst or yourself

…but love your friends and family every day. If you have your health, you’re rich. Happy New Year