From the Société Générale 'Precious Metals Drivers' commodities report (dated 22 August 2017)
In summary:
The World Gold Council published data on supply and demand in 2Q and 1H 2017.
- The WGC reported Q2 gold demand of 953.4t was 10% lower than 2016, while 1H demand slowed 13% to 2,026.1t.
- Year-on-year comparisons were affected by record ETF inflows in 2016: demand from this sector slowed dramatically after last year's 1H surge.
- Central bank net purchases of 176.7t were also slightly lower in 1H 2017 (-3%).
- By contrast, bar and coin investment improved, as did jewellery demand, although the latter remains weak in a long-term context.
- Total gold supply declined 10% yoy in 1H: mine production was steady while recycling levels continued to drop back after the 2016 surge.
Forecasts:
- Q4 2017 1200
- Q1 2018 1175
- Q2 2018 1150