The more I think about it, the more euro shorts make sense here.

  1. The SNB was a massive marginal buyer of euros that’s gone, or going to be gone.
  2. The SNB looks like it’s stepped back in and is buying euros right now to stabilize the market. That’s giving the euro a lift but it won’t last.
  3. This is the strongest sign yet that the ECB will do sovereign QE.
  4. Negative deposit rates be damned, Europe/Russia have a renewed safe haven destination in the CHF and that makes the euro less enticing.

There’s also an argument to wait for the dust to settle. It’s only a few times a decade where you look at your FX ticker and see a double-digit percentage move.

Today's FX ticker - for posterity

Today’s FX ticker – for posterity