Societe General has somewhere else to look aside from the dollar today and USB has a few different ideas:
From SocGen's Kit Juckes:
"Being long dollars feels more like riding up the Alpe d'Huez today, than basking in the sunshine on the Champs-Elysees. It might be worth it in the end, but it's going to hurt. CFTC data show a further build-up of longs, and the US rates market is more range-bound than powering ahead in anticipation of a Fed hike.
All eyes are on the Chinese equity market, falling sharply after two weeks of narrower ranges and steady bounce, but it's notable that the dollar is getting no bid from this against the China-sensitive currencies.
...There is a case for those looking for the Chinese market fall to trigger risk aversion, to short CAD, NZD and AUD against the Yen and even the euro here, than the dollar. Long EUR/AUD is my pick of these."
From UBS:
GBP/USD: The market expects a pickup in growth from GDP data scheduled tomorrow, and we believe downside in the sterling is limited for now. We prefer buying on dips heading into the GDP data.
USD/JPY: US Treasury yields remain suppressed, so the pair is grinding lower in low volume. Fundamentals point to selling rallies, closer to 124.00 intraday with a stop above 124.50.
AUD/USD: We still prefer playing the pair from the short-side targeting, eventually a test towards 0.70. A short term downtrend line has been in play since the beginning of the month, and currently comes in just above 0.7400. Look to add on rallies towards 0.7350, with a stop at 0.7420.
For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus.
