UBS Asset Management note
USD may rise may gain momentum as the US continues to outspend peers on measures to fuel economic growth
- "If you're spending more then you're going to have a higher growth trajectory"
- "The new world is less to do with where your cash rates are -- at this phase of the market, it's about who's spending more"
(UBS referring to fiscal support for the economy with this last point)
USD shorts a "very crowded trade"
- the real squeeze of USD has not yet been seen
- UBS expects emerging-market currencies, euro coming under pressure as the dollar strengthens and US Treasury yields climb
- says real UST yields are starting to rise
