Latest data released by ONS - 11 June 2019

  • Prior +3.2%; revised to +3.3%
  • Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.2% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +3.3%
  • ILO unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.8% expected
  • Prior 3.8%
  • Employment change 32k vs 4k expected
  • Prior 99k
  • May jobless claims change 23.2k
  • Prior 24.7k; revised to 19.1k
  • May claimant count rate 3.1%
  • Prior 3.0%

It's a solid report as wages data holds up with the ex-bonus reading even ticking higher, with the standalone April reading being at +3.8% y/y - the strongest since May 2008. The unemployment rate also holds steady at the lows so there isn't much of anything negative to mention in the release here.

That said, solid wages aren't going to be enough to skew BOE rate hike pricing and it's going to take a whole lot more hawkish comments by BOE members to convince that they can do so in light of Brexit and economic uncertainty.

Cable inches higher to a high of 1.2709 but I don't see much reason for the pair to extend gains apart from short covering. Otherwise, gains should be mild and I'd fade any move higher if we do come to that. Up next later, we'll have Saunders and Broadbent speaking.