UK April GDP -0.4% vs -0.1% m/m expected

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Latest data released by ONS - 10 June 2019


  • Prior -0.1%
  • Monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.4% 3m/3m expected
  • Prior +0.5%
  • Index of services 0.0% vs +0.1% m/m expected
  • Prior -0.1%
Those are some very poor numbers across the board and we're finally starting to see the aftereffects of the Brexit stockpiling in Q1 come into play here. The manufacturing output drop in April was the biggest monthly drop since June 2002 while industrial output showed the biggest monthly drop since September 2012.

Not only that, April GDP - the headline reading - fell by 0.4% as a whole which represents the biggest monthly fall since March 2016. The pound is being brought to session lows now with cable falling under 1.2700 as traders digest the further ugliness that Brexit uncertainty is bringing to the table via the bullwhip effect.

Looking into the details, ONS notes that the poor April reading can also be attributed to the "dramatic fall" in UK car production due to planned shutdowns linked to Brexit uncertainty.

There's also factory activity data released at the same time are as per below:

  • Manufacturing production -3.9% vs -1.4% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.9%
  • Manufacturing production -0.8% vs +2.0% y/y expected
  • Prior +2.6%
  • Industrial production -2.7% vs -1.0% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.7%
  • Industrial production -1.0% vs +0.9% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.3%
  • Construction output -0.4% vs +0.5% m/m expected
  • Prior -1.9%
  • Construction output +2.4% vs +3.3% y/y expected
  • Prior +3.2%

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