Latest data released by CBI - 21 May 2019
- Prior -5
- Trends selling prices -1 vs 0 expected
- Prior 1
Readings above 0 indicates optimism while below indicates pessimism. The headline is a survey on manufacturers to rate the level of volume for orders expected during the next 3 months. A further drop is seen in the order book balance (headline) here, as it falls to its lowest level since October 2016.
There's more symptoms of the bullwhip effect coming into play here due to Brexit stockpiling seen in Q1. The export orders balance falls to -16, its lowest reading since July 2016, while the stocks of finished goods balance rises to +25, its highest reading since May 2009.
If you're wondering what this will mean for the UK economy in Q2, let's just say that now that inventories have built up and orders are not needed, expect the euphoria from Q1 to have the opposite effect and possibly a more pronounced one in the coming months.
