LONDON (MNI) – Below is a poll of analysts’ forecasts for the
second estimate of Q4 GDP and current accounts, due at 0930BST on
Tuesday March 29.
Analysts forecast an end to the miserable train of downward
revisions to the UK Q4 2010 GDP number, with an unrevised headline
number expected.
The focus for this release is on the detail.
In the wake of last week’s Budget, household balance sheets have
come into the spotlight, with real household incomes expected to fall
this year. This Q4 release will reveal whether real household net income
growth for 2010 was negative.
The balance of payments data is expected to show the UK’s
already-very-wide current account deficit to have become wider still at
the end of 2011.
Q4 Q4 Q4
Q4 Q4 Business Business Current
GDP GDP Investme Investment Account
q/q y/y q/q y/y y/y
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Median forecast* -0.6 1.5 -2.5 10.0 -10.3
High forecast -0.6 1.5 -2.5 10.0 -7.4
Low forecast -0.6 1.5 -2.5 10.0 -11.9
Previous period -0.6 1.5 5.9 10.3 -9.6
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Number of responses 11 10 4 4 8
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Barclays Cap. -0.6 1.5 N/A N/A -10.7
BNP Paribas -0.6 1.5 N/A N/A N/A
Capital Economics -0.6 1.5 -2.5 10.0 -10.0
Citi -0.6 1.5 N/A N/A -11.0
Global Insight -0.6 1.5 -2.5 10.0 -10.0
ING -0.6 1.5 N/A N/A -7.4
Investec -0.6 1.5 N/A N/A N/A
JP Morgan -0.6 1.5 -2.5 10.0 -11.9
Nomura -0.6 N/A N/A N/A -9.6
Soc. Generale -0.6 1.5 -2.5 10.0 -10.5
UBS -0.6 1.5 N/A N/A N/A
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For further information contact UK Editorial 44 207 86227492
e-mail: ukeditorial@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]
