UK DATA: Jan PSNB-X -Stg7.75 bn vs -Stg5.204 bn in Jan 2011
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PSNB showded the highest surplus since January 2008, and along with
revisions to previous data, suggest borrowing is on track to undershoot
the latest forecasts from the OBR. PSNB-X showed a surplus of Stg7.75
billion in January, up from a surplus of Stg5.204 billion in the same
month a year earlier, and higher than the median of Stg6.3 billion.
Revisions to April-December meant borrowing was also Stg2 billion less
than previously announced, due to lower local government capital
spending compared to estimates. For the financial year to data net
borrowing stood at Stg93.5 billion, down significantly from Stg109.1
billion in the same period a year earlier. The full year forecast for
PSNB-X is Stg127.1 billion which means net borrowing would need to be
around Stg7 billion higher than last year in Feb and Mar, which
seems unlikely on current trends.