UK DATA: Mar manufacturing output +0.9% m/m; -0.9% y/y
–Mar industrial production -0.3% m/m; -2.6% y/y
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Manufacturing output bounced back strongly in Mar, by 0.9% m/m,
above the 0.5% median forecast. Industrial production was in line with a
fall of 0.3% m/m. The latest data on production imply no revision to Q1
GDP which fell 0.2% q/q. This means the figures will have little impact
on analysts think ahead of the BOE’s policy announcement today, with
only a minority going for further QE. The bounceback in manufacturing
will be welcomed, but does follow a sharp 1.1% fall in February. While
technically this pulls the sector out of recession, output was flat in
Q1, not exactly the export-led recovery that many had hoped for.
Over the quarter, industrial production fell 0.4% compared with the
previous quarter, in line with the estimate used in the calculation of
Q1 GDP figures.