Certain market players may have been buying option-based contracts to be long of the pound post-election but the polls weren't supporting it

All of them were pointing to a close-run thing with the Tories or Labour a point or two ahead, or equal, depending on which ones you read but in the end it was a rout for the Tories finishing with a 332 majority

Voters in the UK are well known for saying one thing and then finally voting another when the push comes to shove hence what is known as the "shy" voters, playing it safe. Something I alluded to in this initial post on Thursday, and elsewhere prior but for the life of me I can't find it!

But these 2015 polls and indeed the bookies certainly weren't showing that or factoring it in and all were within the normal margin of error. And why should there only be shy Tory voters that create a last minute swing?

Homo Sapien is essentially a conservative species ( now there's a point for discussion with regard to trading too) and in the end UK voters went for Cameron & Co on a "better the devil you know" basis even if their hearts were crying out for change. My thought is that the new scenarios involving the SNP and countless permutations of coalition proved too confusing/scary for many voters to contend with

It's also worth noting here though the UK's "first past the post system" means that the winning party doesn't necessarily reflect the real mood of the people. UKIP found an additional 4 million votes making them the this largest supported party but their number of MPs was reduced to 1 while the Greens quadrupled their vote but their representation in Parliament remains at 1. It's calculated that this time round the Tories will govern 60mln people with only 11mln having voted for them. Something wrong in that methinks but no existing govt is going to vote in changes. It would be like turkeys voting to keep Christmas or Thanksgiving

I shall post further on the ramifications of the election result on the UK/pound following my quick assessment running out of the door yesterday but in the meantime here's the BBC's take on just how the pollsters got this result oh so wrong