Coming up during London time today, 10 August 2018 is April to June economic growth data
Preliminary for Q2
Due at 0830GMT
For the headline results:
- expected 0.4% q/q, prev 0.2%
- expected 1.3% y/y, prev 1.2%
Previews via …
Barclays:
- We expect GDP to print +0.4% q/q in Q2 (preliminary release) as the economy recovers from Q1 disruptions and benefits from temporary positive factors.
- But initial trade figures also point to a drag from next exports that we have offset through inventories.
- The monthly series are expected to show GDP around 0.4% m/m in June supported by services (+0.3%m/m) and construction (+0.5%m/m), while production may come in neutral at best.
Nomura:
- Last month the ONS switched the way it produces its GDP statistics from a quarterly to a rolling monthly basis. We already know the GDP data for April and May, and because June is the last month of the quarter it has only a small impact on Q2 growth as a whole.
- Were GDP to be flat between May and June it would be up 0.3% q-o-q, while anything between 0.1% and 0.3% for the month of June would produce 0.4% quarterly growth in Q2.
- We forecast 0.1% m-o-m for June and 0.4% q-o-q for Q2. Note that industrial, construction and services output are published at the same time for June, as well as the expenditure detail for Q2 as a whole.
I'll dig about and should have more to come later.
And, also big data due today from the US (inflation, July) and Canada (employment, July). And …. you guessed it …. I'll have more to come on these separately
