–Barclays Q3 Survey: Year Ahead Inflation Seen 2.5% Vs 3.4 In Q2 Survey
–Barclays: 5 Year Ahead Inflation Seen At 3.1% Vs 4.1%
LONDON (MNI) – UK public inflation expectations have plunged,
according to the latest Barclays BASIX survey.
The Q3 survey found inflation expectations for 12 months, two
years and five-year ahead all dropped markedly. The survey will be
welcome news for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, with
its members frequently citing the risk of inflation expectations becoming
“de-anchored” from the MPC’s 2.0% inflation target.
The Barclays’ survey found 12-month ahead inflation expectations
fell to 2.5% from 3.4% in Q2, two-year ahead expectations dropped to
2.8% from 3.8% in Q2 and five year ahead expectations fell to 3.1% from
4.1%.
The survey results suggest consumers’ inflation expectations may be
sensitive to growing concerns about the economic outlook rather than
price news.
“We are surprised by the Q3 results, as the inflation news since
the previous survey has, in our view, been firmly to the upside,”
Barclays Economist Simon Hayes stated in a note.
Hayes said the increase in wheat prices had raised concerns about
food price inflation and consensus inflation forecasts have increased.
The Barclays BASIX survey, compiled by GfK/NOP, is cited by the
BOE among its range of inflation expectation indicators.
The findings of the BOE’s own quarterly inflation expectations
survey will be published next week.
–London newsroom 4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,M$$BE$]
