Latest data released by ONS - 12 November 2020
- Prior -19.8%
- GDP -9.6% vs -9.4% y/y expected
- Prior -21.5%
- Private consumption +18.3% vs +17.4% q/q expected
- Prior -23.6%
- Exports +5.1% vs +10.4% q/q expected
- Prior -11.0%
- Imports +13.2% vs +19.0% q/q expected
- Prior -22.7%
- Total business investment +8.8% vs +14.7% q/q expected
- Prior -26.5%
Slight delay in the release by the source. The UK economy bounced back strongly in Q3 following the record slump in Q2 but the details highlight some less than impressive performance in activity during the last quarter.
Private consumption was robust but trade conditions missed estimates and business investment was weaker than anticipated, and that reflects much hesitancy from businesses amid the virus crisis and also the Brexit drama that is still lingering.
With the UK imposing tighter restrictions in October and November, the Q4 outlook certainly doesn't look good so the rebound here will be quickly put in the rear view.
For added context, the UK economy is still 9.7% lower compared to where it was at the end of 2019 with the UK experiencing the largest drop in GDP for the three quarters when compared to US, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
