Earlier previews for the inflation data re here:
Another one now, this via Nomura:
Consumer price inflation
- We forecast a fall in CPI inflation in September following its above-consensus print the previous month. Rises in petrol prices and utility bills could limit how far inflation declines in September, however, which explains our forecast of just a one tenth fall to 2.6%. We look for CPI inflation to fall back towards its 2% target over the next six months.
Producer price inflation
- We expect a rise in crude oil prices in September to lead to a monthly increase of 0.5% in input prices - our forecast is limited by the downward impact of a rise in sterling during the month. As for output prices, we note the rise in the output prices index of the PMI manufacturing survey, but a fall in the equivalent balance of the CBI survey. We see a larger monthly rise (0.3%) in headline output prices than core (0.2%) thanks to higher oil prices.
And, RBC:
- A number of one-off and stronger than usual seasonal factors appear to have been behind the surprise rise in CPI inflation to 2.7% y/y in August. Seasonally, there was a bigger than usual rebound in clothing and footwear prices after some heavy discounting in the summer sales while the upward contribution from package holidays was also larger than normal. Adding that, the more volatile items such as computer games saw a sharp rise in prices last month.
- Our expectation is that those factors should drop out this month. However, fuel prices continued to rise at a rate similar to recent months, which should keep CPI inflation at 2.5% y/y, which would leave inflation averaging 2.6% y/y in Q3, slightly ahead of the MPC's expectations at the time of the August Inflation Report
