— Latest Poll Covers 25 Economists, Up From 10 In Initial Survey
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s economic growth in the first quarter will be
revised up slightly to a 1.1% rise on quarter (annualized +4.3%) from an
initial 1.0% gain (annualized +4.1%), reflecting an expected upward
revision to a sharp drop in business investment, according to the median
forecast of 25 economists surveyed by MNI.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) GDP
data for January-March at 0850 JST on Friday, June 8 (2350 GMT on
Thursday).
The latest median forecast is slightly lower than the 1.1% rise q/q
(annualized +4.5%) projected in the initial MNI survey of 10 economists
released on June 4.
The preliminary GDP data released last month showed that the
economy posted a third consecutive quarterly gain on an annualized basis
after +0.1% (unchanged q/q) in the fourth quarter of 2011 and +7.6%
(+1.9% q/q) in the third quarter.
Economists based their forecasts on the results of a quarterly
business survey by the Ministry of Finance released last week.
Capex will be revised up to -2.9% q/q from the preliminary reading
of -3.9% while the positive contribution of private-sector inventories
to GDP will be revised down to +0.3 percentage point from a preliminary
+0.4% point, according to consensus among 25 economists polled by MNI.
The median forecasts for capex and inventories are the same as
those by 10 economists in the initial MNI survey.
The MOF survey showed non-financial firm capita investment
including software rose 3.3% y/y in Q1, showing the second straight
quarterly rise after +7.6% in Q4 and -9.8% in Q3.
tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
