–Adds Friday’s December Retail Sales Data To 1433 GMT Version
London, Jan 16 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and events.
All times in GMT/ET format.
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Tuesday, Jan 17
GMT/ET Data/Event Prior Median
0930/0430 Dec Consumer Prices
0930/0430 Dec Core CPI (%m/m) 0.1 n/a
0930/0430 Dec Core CPI (%y/y) 3.2 3.0
0930/0430 Dec CPI (%m/m) 0.2 0.4
0930/0430 Dec CPI (%y/y) 4.8 4.2
0930/0430 Dec RPI (%m/m) 0.2 0.3
0930/0430 Dec RPI (%y/y) 5.2 4.7
0930/0430 Dec RPI-X (%m/m) 0.2 n/a
0930/0430 Dec RPI-X (%y/y) 5.3 4.9
Inflation is expected to have fallen sharply in December, with a
0.6 percentage point drop between November and December in the yearly,
headline CPI rate.
Base effects are driving the move lower, with inflation a year ago
driven up by, among other things, utility price hikes and high oil and
petrol prices.
The Bank of England’s central forecast in its November Inflation
Report was for CPI to average 4.71% in Q4. As CPI stood at 5.0% in
October and 4.8% in November, if its December outturn matches analysts’
median forecast of 4.2%, it will average 4.67%, a shade below the BOE’s
forecast.
The BOE is confident CPI will continue to fall sharply in Q1, to an
average 3.43%.
1000/0500 UK BOE King, Haldane, Cohrs, Jenkins At
Treasury Select Committee Hearing On Financial
Stability Report.
Expect plenty of questions from lawmakers about the risks posed by
the Eurozone and problems of bank funding.
1830/1330 UK BOE MPC Adam Posen Speech at Chatham House
Posen is the arch dove on the Monetary Policy Committee, but having
led the way in voting for more QE he fell into line with his colleagues
in backing no change in November and December (the January vote in yet
to be published.)
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Wednesday, Jan 18
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Jan Labour Force Survey
0930/0430 UK Dec Claimant Count Change (000s) 3.0 9.0
0930/0430 UK Dec Claimant Count Rate (%) 5.0 5.0
0930/0430 UK Nov Avg Weekly Earnings (%3m y/y) 2.0 2.0
0930/0430 UK Nov ILO Unemployment Ch. 3m/3m (000s) 128 n/a
0930/0430 UK Nov ILO Unemployment Rate (%3m) 8.3 8.3
0930/0430 UK Nov Regular Avg Wk Earnings (%3m y/y) 1.8 1.9
Unemployment is on the rise, and jobs growth appears to be
declining. Markit’s December survey for KPMG/REC found UK permanent
placements and temporary job billings declined simultaneously in
December, the first concurrent contraction since back in July 2009.
Analysts expect the claimant count, and ILO unemployment rates, to
be unchanged, but with rises in jobless numbers. Earnings growth is
subdued, running in line with the Bank of England Monetary Policy
Committee’s 2.0% CPI target.
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Friday, Jan 20
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Dec Retail Sales
0930/0430 UK Dec Retail Sales ex-fuel (%m/m) -0.7 0.7
0930/0430 UK Dec Retail Sales ex-fuel (%y/y) 0.5 1.7
0930/0430 UK Dec Retail Sales Total (%m/m) -0.4 0.6
0930/0430 UK Dec Retail Sales Total (%y/y) 0.7 2.4
The British Retail Consortium data showed strong growth in
December, with like-for-like sales up 2.2% on the year in value terms.
While analysts’ median forecast is for robust 0.6% and 0.7% monthly
growth in total and ex-fuel retail sales volumes respectively, the
forecast range is wide: from flat to 1.2% for total monthly sales
growth.
The raft of recent corporate retail sales results have shown some
patches of weakness, lending some support to the more pessimistic
forecasts.
Retailers’ results have shown continued weakness in sales of big
ticket itmems and winter wear sales have been hit by the exceptionally
mild weather.
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: ukeditorial@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]
