US August inventory data

  • Prior was +1.2%
  • Sales +1.1% vs +1.0% expected
  • Prior sales +2.0%
  • Stock to sales ratio 1.23 vs 1.20 prior

I want to piggyback on this post to highlight what I think will be the big story at this time next year: inventory rebuilding.

After the great toilet paper shortage at the start of the pandemic, I won't live without 20 rolls in reserve anymore. It's the same for companies, instead of a small scare for a week or two, they're going to be living without the 'toilet paper' of their businesses for months. In response, they're going to kill 'just in time' inventory management and build big inventories and that will be a major tailwind to 2023 growth.