By Josh Newell

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. trade deficit is expected to rise
slightly in October, as exports are projected to be sluggish while a
replenishing of inventories could push up imports.

The trade deficit is estimated at $44 billion, as projected in a
survey of economists by Market News International. This would be a
somewhat larger deficit than the $43.1 billion in September.

Kenneth Mayland, president of Clearview Economics, sees some
weakening in exports most likely due to the European debt crisis and the
slowdown of emerging economies such as China. “There is weakening growth
worldwide that will affect our export prospects,” he said.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC chief economist, built on this, telling Market
News International to “expect some growth in autos exports.” But “the
near-term outlook for exports is not great given the possibility of a
recession in Europe and slowing emerging economy growth rates.”

The ISM export index in manufacturing was flat at 50 for October,
after reporting growth for 27 consecutive months, while the
non-manufacturing index remained several points over 50, illustrating
some slight export growth overall but backing the idea that the world
economy is indeed growing at a slower pace.

Imports, on the other hand, are expected to rise somewhat for
October. Better-than-expected September retail sales caused companies to
dig into their inventories, and so now many retailers are replenishing
these inventories in October.

Shenfeld of CIBC, commented, “We had a drop in inventories last
month, and now there is some rebuilding of inventories through imports.”

Kenneth Mayland also pointed to slightly higher petroleum imports
potentially providing a boost to imports.

While imports might be projected to rise, the October ISM reports
on manufacturing and non-manufacturing both showed Import indices below
50, illustrating an overall contraction in imports. For the
manufacturing report, this marked the first reading below 50 in over two
years.

The U.S. trade balance report will be released Friday at 8:30 ET by
the Department of Commerce.

— Joshua Newell is a Washington reporter for Need to Know News

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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