Is durable goods orders for December (preliminary).
- durable goods orders 2.4% versus 0.4% estimate. The prior revised to -3.1 from -2.1 previously reported
- ex transportation -0.1 versus 0.3% estimate. Prior month revised -0.4% from -0.1% previously reported
- capital goods orders nondefense ex air -0.9% versus 0.2% estimate. The prior was +0.1% versus 0.2%
- capital goods shipments nondefense ex air -0.4% versus 0.2% estimate. The prior month is unrevised at -0.3%
The headline durable goods orders was much better-than-expected but the pieces and revisions are not all that great (in fact not good at all). The capital goods orders nondefense ex air is the business investment proxy. It is still showing weakness at -0.9%. Analysts (and the Trump administration) are putting hope in business investment to boost GDP in 2020. Perhaps in January we get that boost.
The report today is the preliminary estimate. In a week or so (on February 4 to be exact), the factory orders will be released with a revised value for the durable goods pieces. Also, as evident in today's numbers, the revisions can continue into next month's release. So "what we see today might not be what we get tomorrow" (or in the next few revisions), but the details of today's numbers are not that great.
