US inflation data a focus for the week - CPI preview

Its a holiday Monday in the US today, with reduced liquidity. Canada holiday also.

But, mid-week we get some data from the US that will be a focus, CPI for October.

A preview (this is a summary of a detailed note) via UBS:

• UBS projects that headline CPI will come a bit above consensus
• projections suggest headline inflation picked up notably in October from September
• a bounce back in used car prices and housing rents

Further out:

• The 12-month change in the CPI should fall strongly over the next few months
• Between now and early next year ... headline CPI inflation will plunge in response to weak gasoline prices, while core CPI inflation will stay in the 2.2 to 2.3% range through March

Via Nomura:

• used vehicle prices … contributed to the downside surprise in core CPI inflation … we think the decline in used vehicle prices was transitory and should partially revert in October
• the notable slowdown in homeowners' equivalent rent (HOER) in September ... should pick up in October