–Initial Claims Revised Up Slightly To 405,000 In October 1 Week
–Labor Analyst Notes Nothing Unusual In State Data, 5 States Estimates

By Brai Odion-Esene and Ian McKendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits were little changed in the October 8 week, dipping by a mere
1,000 to a level of 404,000 after seasonal adjustment, the Labor
Department reported Thursday.

A Labor Department analyst said there was nothing unusual in the
state level data but that due to Monday’s federal holiday, several were
estimated. Those states were California, Indiana, Maryland, Virginia,
while the claims level for Washington D.C. was estimated by the Labor
Dept.

“When the states provide us with estimates they tend to be fairly
accurate because they are only estimating that portion of the week that
they haven’t completed,” the analyst said. “Typically we do not have
large revisions as a result of estimated data.”

Economists surveyed by Market News International had expected
initial claims to come in at 410,000, up 9,000 from the previously
reported level of 401,000 in the October 1 week. The previous week’s
claims were revised up/down to a level of 395,000.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average was
408,000 in the October 8 week, down 7,000 from the previous week and the
lowest level since 403,500 in the August 13 week.

The Labor Department analyst said seasonal factors had expected an
increase of 20.4%, or about 67,000 in unadjusted claims. The actual rise
in claims came in very close to the expectation; up 20%, or 66,442
claims, to 398,836 in the current week. This after rising by just 956 in
the previous week. Unadjusted claims were at a level of 462,667 in the
comparable week a year earlier.

“Seasonal factors for this particular week expected a very large
increase in initial claims,” the Labor analyst said. He noted that the
Oct. 8 week is the first full week of a new quarter, a period when
claims are typically expected to increase “quite a bit.”

The state data released for the October 1 week indicated unadjusted
initial claims increased in 30 states and declined in 23 states. The
District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands are included in
this data.

In the October 1 week, continuing claims fell 55,000 to 3,670,000
after seasonal adjustment. Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 72,423
to 3,093,486.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 2.9% in
the October 1 week from 3.0% in the previous week. The current rate is
well below the 3.5% rate in the comparable week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency
Unemployment Compensation benefits claims fell by 11,412 in the
September 24 week, bringing that category to 3,016,035. Extended
benefits claims rose by 13,696 to 537,165, not seasonally adjusted in
the same week.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 6,821,585 persons
claimed unemployment benefits in the September 24 week, a decline of
39,203 from the previous week and still well below the 8,695,126 persons
in the comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally
adjusted, and include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new
veterans claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state
additional benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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