Just picking up the chatter on the streets after the worse that expected Empire state numbers. I mentioned it was used as a precursor for manufacturing events and a lot of institutions are now revising the more meaningful ISM numbers due at the beginning of March. As expected many are noting the weather.

  • TD says that while the NY data disappointed a re-weighted ISM index has mirrored the deterioration and this has already set the tone for a poor manufacturing recovery in Feb
  • JPM says the Empire data suggests an ISM of 50.9 (51.3 is the Jan number) and says that the expectations measure was quite strong
  • CRT says most of the fall was down to the weather
  • Pantheon says the weather was to blame and we could see another drop in March

If the market is going to write off bad data to the weather then we’re going to have to see a marked turnaround when that can’t be used as an excuse. If it doesn’t then the dollar could be in a whole heap of trouble and Aunty Janet may have her first rough ride as Fed head.

Don’t blame it on the sunshine, don’t blame it on the moonlight, don’t blame it on the good times, blame it on the weather