What to look for in the nonfarm payroll report due from the US on Friday

This via Westpac (in summary):

February …

result came as a significant shock to the market, coming in at just 20k.

  • Still, for the year- to-date, the average monthly gain is robust at 166k.

March …

we look for a 185k gain to keep month-average growth around 170k.

  • There is however a material risk of significant positive revisions to Feb, and hence of a softer March

unemployment rate will most likely be unchanged at 3.8%

  • the trend remains downward … 3.5% could be seen in the second half of 2019.

Hourly earnings

  • At 3.4%yr, wages growth is well up on its lows, but still not indicative of a 'hot' labour market. This modest uptrend should persist through 2019, to near 4.0%yr