The first look at US Q1 GDP (numbers are annualized)
- Worst US quarter on record
- Q1 was -5.0%
- Ex motor vehicles -30.8%
- Personal consumption -34.6% vs -34.5% expected
- GDP price index -18.% vs 0.0% expected
- Core PCE -1.1% vs -0.9% expected
- Consumer spending on durables -1.4% vs -13.8% prior
- GDP final sales -29.3% vs -3.5% prior
- Business investment -27.0% vs -6.4% prior
- Business investment in equipment -37.7%
- Exports -64.1%
- Imports -53.4%
- Inventories cut 3.98 pp from GDP (-$315.5B)
The market was likely looking for a small beat after the trade data yesterday and that wouldn't have been reflected in the consensus, but it came through in the Atlanta Fed tracker.
It's tough to put any of this into perspective -- it's such a massive drop. We're going to see a huge rebound in Q3 but you need a 50% to recoup a 32.9% drop.
