US fourth quarter 2019 GDP data:
- Prior quarter was +2.1%
- Personal spending +1.8% vs +2.0% expected
- GDP price index +1.4% vs +1.8% expected
- GDP deflator +1.5% vs +1.8% expected
- Business investment -1.5%
- Home investment +5.8%
- Business investment in structures -10.1%
- GDP ex motor vehicles +3.0%
- Year-over-year GDP +2.3%
- Exports +1.4%
- Imports -8.7%
The story here is that inflation numbers were soft, which has pushed up GDP above expected but nominal GDP was soft.
If that's the case again, you could see this number revised to 1.8%.
Aggregate 2019 growth was 2.3% compared to 2.9% last year. It's the softest year of growth since 2016.
Contributions to GDP (percentage points):
- Personal consumption +1.2 pp
- Consumption of goods +0.26 pp
- Consumption of services +0.94 pp
- Gross private investment -1.08 pp
- Inventories -1.09 pp
- Net exports +1.48 pp
- Government consumption +0.47
The inventory number was expected to be soft but not that soft. The Atlanta Fed was looking for a 0.39 pp drag but with net exports only adding 0.82 pp.
