A preview of the data via Nomura:

  • We expect a healthy 0.4% m-o-m increase in "core" retail sales in October, following a 0.5% gain in September.
  • Consumer sentiment remains elevated despite recent stock market volatility and heightened concerns about global trade. The labor market remains strong and income gains have been steady. Considering these factors, we think personal spending momentum will remain robust in Q4. Among non-core components, sales at gasoline stations and building materials stores likely increased firmly. We expect a steady increase in receipts at autos and parts dealerships considering WardsAuto's light vehicle sales data for October. Excluding autos and auto parts, we expect 0.6% m-o-m gain in retail sales. Altogether, we expect a 0.6% m-o-m increase.

Citi:

  • We expect retail sales at 0.4% (consensus 0.6%)
  • Retail sales in September rose 0.1% MM (less than consensus expectations at 0.6%MM). Some of this weakness could have been due to Hurricane Florence causing store closures in tourism-heavy areas. Hence, we do not take September retail sales as a sign of weakness in consumption given still strong momentum in underlying sales in the retail control group. However, softer total sales overall will imply slightly less support to Q3 consumption in GDP

Barclays:

  • We expect retail sales to have increased 0.2% m/m in October. We forecast gasoline station sales to stage a firm rebound, driving headline sales higher. Auto sales reported by manufacturers recorded decent growth in October, and we expect a similar print at the retail level. For sales excluding autos, we forecast growth of 0.2% m/m. At the core level, however, we forecast a decline in sales of 0.2% m/m.

HSBC:

Real consumer spending has been strong lately, expanding at an annual rate of 3.8% in Q2 and
4.0% in Q3. Retail sales have been rising, with growth in both online and brick-and-mortar
sales. We expect moderate increases in October, with both total retail sales and ex-autos sales
rising 0.3%