Due at 0030 GMT, Australian data for wages in Q4 of 2017

Q4 Wage Price Index

  • expected 0.5% m/m, prior 0.5%
  • expected 2.0% y/y, prior 2.0%

I posted previews here (via NAB) yesterday

More now, these via:


  • We expect a moderate 0.5% rise in the Wage Price Index in Q4. We see the risks as tilted to the upside, given the potential for catch-up from the minimum wage boost and delayed EBAs. A rise of 0.5% would bring annual growth to 2.0%, continuing the very mild upward trend.


  • The annual growth rate is expected to stay at 2% and offer a relatively benign inflation outlook for the next few quarters. Most models of the jobs market and wages outlook are indicating a pick-up in wages by year end.

TD Securities:

  • After penalty rate cuts left Q3 WCI at 2.0%/y instead of 2.2%/y, we see upside for Q4 via (1) delayed minimum wage boost and (2) absent penalty rate cut boosting services WCI. As well, cyclical wages (manufacturing, construction and professionals) are expected to climb further off the floor as 2017 was a year of strong employment in these sectors, especially full-time

Also due at 0030 from Australia is Q4 Construction Work Done, I'll have more to come on this