The yen got crushed on every cross this week but the biggest gainer was a bit of a surprise — the Swiss franc.
For so many years the yen and Swiss franc were attached at the hip but central banking hijinks have broken the spell. This week CHF/JPY gained a colossal 4.8% to be the biggest percentage move in the market.
The chart is uber-bullish. After touching the lowest since March 1 on Tuesday, the pair rallied more than 500 pips to the highest since Aug 2011. And if the pair closes near here it will be the highest weekly close since 2008.
The problem with looking at CHF charts is that the franc is manipulated. Some people believe that charts can account for everything but I think outright manipulation is an exception.
Basing it on the chart alone, I would suspect CHF/JPY was headed to 108.75 and probably higher. That might be the case but it’s tricky to predict because the Swiss franc can’t rise much more without euro strength.
So the next move in CHF/JPY depends on EUR/JPY.
We can see that this pair has gained 600 pips this week but has not (yet) broken above the February highs.
On balance, I think it’s highly likely that EUR/JPY breaks out similarly to CHF/JPY but with the February highs just 100 pips away the risk/reward for longs isn’t right until it breaks out.