The scorecard on US economic data from May 18-22

Better/higher than expected:

  • April 2015 US housing starts 1.135m vs 1.060m exp
  • April CPI ex-food and energy +0.3% vs +0.2% exp

Worse/lower than expected:

  • US initial jobless claims 274k vs 271k exp
  • May prelim Markit PMI 53.8 vs 54.5 expected
  • May 2015 US Philly Fed business optimism index 6.7 vs 8.0 exp
  • April existing home sales 5.04m vs 5.23m expected
  • Chicago Fed national activity index -0.15 vs 0.00 expected
  • May 2015 US NAHB housing market index data 54 vs 57 exp

So what happened in the US dollar? There was a massive US dollar rally on housing starts and a rally nearly equally large on the tiny beat in CPI.

That's not a market that suddenly excited about the US economy or inflation; that's just a market looking for an excuse to buy US dollars.

At the end of the day, it is what it is. It's a clear sign of which way the wind is blowing, so it's time to throw up a sail and ride with it.

That said, be wary of the dovemaster speaking later today.