May's tricky balancing act
In March 2019 Britain will leave the EU and we can expect plenty of twists and turns along the way. One event to keep focused on is the political party conferences that are coming up. May's conservative conference starts on 30 September and May has the unenviable task of trying to rally the conservative party to support her in the final negotiations with the EU. The main sticking point is the Irish backstop issue and the Salzburg meeting showed that the EU is not willing to accept May's Chequer's plan.
So May now has a tricky balancing act to play at her party conference. She needs to convince her 'hard' Brexiteers, who want a severance with EU and a Canada style deal with the EU, that her plan to avoid her hard border with Ireland is a compromise that can be taken. Since Salzburg, the Labour Party have threatened to vote down May's final deal with the EU in Parliament . They would happily force a general election to make a grab for power and are letting May know. Ironically, this may actually unify the hardline Conservative members behind May to ensure Labour do not us the confusion to grab power.
Have a look at ing.com's infographic below for an outline of the current position of those outside and within Theresa May's own party. The GBP remains elevated to headline risk, so look out for the positive or negative headline shitting the wires at any stage. Also, look to see how the Conservative party position themselves in respect to May's Chequer proposals.
So, once again keep looking at headlines for the pound and the gift that keeps on giving has been selling the GBP on rallies.
