A look at the economic surprise index from Citi
I often look at this to match it up with how currencies are performing.
The kiwi has leveled off this year but its economic numbers have been far exceeding estimates. If that keeps up, it's only a matter of time until the RBNZ turns.
Also near the top is the euro. The consensus dropped estimates as the latest wave of covid hit but we're seeing everywhere that consumers have handled it much better than earlier waves and that's led to some better European numbers.
On the bottom is China. Given manufacturing strength and the absence of covid there, is that a warning sign about what the post-virus world will look like? Maybe hopes for a boom are misplaced. Then again, China doesn't have the pent up demand so it's tough to draw parallels.
