This is an interesting piece from Tim Harford
Link is here, not gated, so go read the whole thing
I particularly liked this bit:
- Whether you're sinking a beer with friends or prognosticating on cable news, the social pressure is to make an interesting, confident statement rather than hum and haw about all the ways in which you might be wrong. Confident, eye-catching forecasts are the snack food of analysis and commentary: everybody knows they're doing us no good but we can't seem to resist.
Yep ... "the social pressure is to make an interesting, confident statement rather than hum and haw about all the ways in which you might be wrong" .... My pledge to the readers of ForexLive is to try to always be boring, to hum and haw as much as possible.
