Where oh where to begin?
First up here’s the results of all the main opinion polls so far (except the latest Ipsos/Mori poll just released). All that’s left is the Evening Standard poll to come sometime this afternoon (or whenever it gets released). With the polls open there’s not going to be too much attention paid to it.
Final opinion poll results
The last headlines and chatter among the ranks was that Alex Salmond has demanded Scotland’s share of the BOE gold reserves and QE gilts and the article from Frances Coppola looks to answer a few questions that Scotland’s share of UK debt could be wiped out via QE gilts, while helping clean out around half of the BOE balance sheet in one swoop. It’s a worthwhile read to see the sort of thing being bandied around.
Mr Obama tweeted that he hoped the UK remained united right as Salmond was finishing a speech yesterday.
And so on to how things are going to play out tonight.
If you want to see the full rules and regs of how the vote is being run then check out the rule book here; Count_Timing_for_2014_Scottish_Independence_Referendum
What’s important to note is that the press will be held back from reporting on all campaigning until all the polls have closed. The BBC say;
Once the polls have closed, ballot papers will be counted in each of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas.
These will include votes cast from the 789,024 postal vote applications, which was the largest volume of registration for postal votes ever in Scotland.
After votes have been tallied, the counting officer in each area will communicate the result to the chief counting officer Mary Pitcaithly in Edinburgh.
With her approval they will then make a declaration of the result.
Once the results from all 32 local authority areas are known, Ms Pitcaithly will declare the result of the referendum at the Royal Highland Centre outside Edinburgh.
Ms Pitcaithly has said she will announce the result at “breakfast time” on Friday.
The result is most likely to be between 06:30 and 07:30, according to Elections Scotland.
Pin it to your forehead
As we like a bit of funky gadgeteering here on ForexLive here’s a super referendum data map which shows the sway of votes in the 32 voting areas and their likely declaration times.
Scotland vote heat map
You can mess about with it to your hearts content here
Finally the last odds check from the bookies. Here is the run down of all the main bookmakers odds.
Full Scottish vote betting odds 18 09 2014
And the good old pie chart from today and yesterday.
Scotland vote bets 18 09 2014
Scotland vote bets 17 09 2014
Virtually unchanged on the split but the odds have gone out on the “Yes” vote and come in on the “No” vote. This is the indication on where the market is placed for each outcome, not the split of actual bets. High odds = lower expected chance of the outcome, low odds = higher expected chance of the outcome.
All that remains is to work out how to trade the darn thing, but I tell you what, I’m not sitting up all night watching it
The pound has set it’s bias to a “No” vote and we’re around 300 odd pips up from those first panicky lows at 1.6050.
That’s a good buffer for those of you who scaled in longs around there, so it’s worth protecting some of that with a stop at maybe 1.6150 or 1.6200, in case we get a “yes” vote.
For a “No” vote we will see a pop in the pound but I’m concerned about how much. If we see 150-200 pips I think that will be a stretch, but let’s not underestimate the fact that far more people outside of the UK see this as a bigger deal than those of us within the UK, and so may cause a big reaction. Again, if you are long going into the result and we get a big pop then it may make sense to trail a stop 50-100 pips behind the price. It won’t take long for the Scottish factor to wash out of the pound and we’ll be back to the economic fundamentals. Remember that we’re still in this H2 slowdown and have a slightly more hawkish Fed now.
I highlighted some levels before the FOMC yesterday and they still stand today (there’s levels for other majors too).
Most notably is the area from 1.6530 to the 50.0 fib of the Sep swing at 1.6620 and 200 mma at 1.6629. These will be levels I’ll be watching closely for signs of fatigue in any upward move.
GBP/USD Daily chart 18 09 2014
If we get a “Yes” vote we are likely to see a very big downward move on the mere shock of it. I’ve had my eye on the tech around the 1.60 level for some time so I’ll be watching any move down to it with interest. I’m still a firm believer that even a yes vote won’t signal the arrival of the four horseman of the apocalypse on our shores, but the market may see that differently so I’ll be looking to start scaling in longs around there for a longer term trade and will reassess that if we break the 1.5750 area and 61.8 fib of the Jul 2013/2014 swing at 1.5720.
GBP/USD Weekly chart 18 09 2014
Good luck if you’re in already or looking to trade the event and all the best to the sweaties, however they vote.