The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 2Q growth is coming in at -1.5% vs -1.2% last.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5 percent on July 15, down from -1.2 percent on July 8. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.9 percent and -13.7 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -13.8 percent, respectively.
The next update comes in on July 19
The 1Q of GDP in the US fell. The 2nd quarter according to the Atlanta Fed model is also negative putting together 2 months of declines. That technically is needed to define a recession.
However, Fed Pres. Bullard is saying recently that he finds it hard to believe the US is entering a recession when adding 2.7M jobs in the year. He prefers to look at GDI or Gross Domestic Income instead as his preferred proxy.
