Up until recently Australia lagged well behind many of its peers, only providing inflation data (from official sources) once a quarter. There is now a monthly reading from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Today we get the October reading:
In brief previews. National Australia Bank:
- Fuel prices, airfares, and rents suggest we should expect a high print and we pencil in a lift to 7.7% YoY (1.0% MoM) from 7.3% YoY in September based on the limited data that we have for the month.
- Considering the partial indicators we have, and making reference to the timing of the surveys for the various components of the CPI, we are forecasting the Monthly Indicator to lift 0.6% in October holding the annual rate flat at 7.3%.
- We are nearing the peak in the annual pace of inflation but given the timing of the various surveys, we don’t expect to see it until December. From there we expect to moderate as we move through 2023 with the usual monthly volatility .