Canadian GDP
  • Annualized q/q GDP -1.1% vs +0.2% expected
  • Q2 annualized q/q GDP revised to +1.4% from -0.2%
  • September GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% expected
  • August GDP was 0.0%
  • Prelim Oct GDP +0.2%
  • Q2 GDP revised to +0.3% from 0.0%
  • GDP implicit price Q/Q +1.8% vs +0.7% prior (prior revised to +0.4%)
  • Q3 final domestic demand +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
  • Full report

This is a big miss but note the upward revision to Q2 and a positive preliminary October number.

"The decrease in international exports and slower inventory accumulation were partially offset by increases in government spending and housing investment," the report said.

Exports of goods and services fell 1.3% in the third quarter after increasing 1.3% in the second quarter. The leading contributor to the decrease was refined petroleum energy products, which dropped 25.4% in the third quarter after rising 23.9% in the second quarter. That looks like refinery maintenance and oilfield turnarounds, rather than a big problem in the domestic economy.

That said, yesterday's current account data was poor and Canadian credit is contracting for the first time since the 1990s, so there are plenty of reasons to sell the Canadian dollar. Last week's Canadian retail sales report was extremely strong but the fuze on mortgage resets is running short and Canadian home prices are in an outright fall.

Canada GDP