Keep an eye out on the euro in European morning trade, with negotiated wages data in the spotlight for the Eurozone. There's no estimate or consensus on the number but the call seems to be for wages to reflect a 4.4% or 4.5% year-on-year reading.
The ECB has made it clear that this is a key factor that they are watching, but I would argue more so for Q1 2024 than Q4 2023. In that lieu, it stands to reason why policymakers might wait until May at the earliest before deciding to communicate any clear pivot on rates.
The trend has been showing a steady rise in negotiated wages since 2022, so any drop from the previous reading of 4.7% will be much welcome. I don't think this will have too much of an impact on the euro but it depends on how much it will shift the rates pricing. As things stand, the odds of an April rate cut are at ~51% so far today.
