Westpac preview the jobs market report due from Australia today, in summary:
- employment growth’s pace has moderated from +48k/mth in March, to +30k/mth in June, now to +23k/mth in September
- While employment is tracking a gradual softening, there are clearer signs of softness emerging from hours worked.
- In essence, employers are less willing to provide hours but are not yet materially reducing their workforce. This provides another signal that the Australian labour market is at a turning point – no longer tightening, but it is yet to begin slackening to a significant degree.
Westpac is expecting the three–month average pace of employment growth to be near to the trend or modestly below. Further ahead WPAC see the labour market remaining tight into the end of 2023 before weakness in employment growth begins to take hold in 2024.
Earlier on the jobs report and how the RBA views it: