Here's the agenda for the February preliminary readings:
- France CPI (28/2)
- Spain CPI (28/2)
- Germany CPI (1/3)
- Italy CPI (2/3)
- Eurozone CPI (2/3)
Headline annual inflation for the overall Eurozone is expected to decline further this month, from 8.6% to 8.3%. While that will be a welcome development for risk sentiment, the core reading is still expected to keep at 5.3% - unchanged from January.
As such, that should balance things out (if they do come in similar to estimates) as the latter will reinforce the 50 bps rate hike by the ECB in March.
Depending on any beats/misses, the data releases above will play a role in impacting the euro and market pricing for the ECB. As of today, it is the first time that the market is seeing the terminal rate move into next year for the central bank i.e. no rate cuts priced in for 2023. We'll have to see if the data corroborates with that view later in the week.
