The latest opinion poll sees Macron winning with 56% of the vote, having widened that gap before the first round of elections on 10 April. And the fact that the lead is being consolidated shows that markets could perhaps breathe a little easier during this week.
Don't get me wrong. Politics these days are never certain. Le Pen could bring about an upset and if she does, the euro is going to be reeling from the election result surely.
Considering the technical vulnerabilities in the single currency against the dollar below 1.0800, it leaves exposed a potential drop towards the March 2020 low @ 1.0635.
As for a straightforward Macron victory, I don't expect much upside for the euro in France retaining the status quo. There might be a bit of a relief push (though I wouldn't expect much) but I think the play might be to fade that as long as the dollar continues to hold firmer elsewhere alongside higher bond yields in general.
I mean, if a more hawkish ECB pricing isn't enough to get the euro buoyed this week, I'm not sure what else will.
