- Credit Suisse top shareholder rules out further financial assistance
- What does the market pricing say about Credit Suisse right now?
- Dollar and yen pick up a bid as the jitters return
- ECB reportedly still leaning towards 50 bps rate hike tomorrow
- Eurozone January industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% m/m expected
- Germany February wholesale price index +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m prior
- France February final CPI +6.3% vs +6.2% y/y prelim
- Japan PM Kishida says aiming to raise minimum wages beyond ¥1,000 nationwide
- JPY leads, EUR lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 1.6%
- US 10-year yields down 11 bps to 3.526%
- Gold up 0.8% to $1,916.43
- WTI crude down 1.5% to $70.44
- Bitcoin up 0.1% to $24,654
The session started off with markets in a much calmer mood, with 2-year Treasury yields rising up to by 19 bps 4.41% and 2-year German bond yields also up by 9 bps to 3.01%. Equities were tentative but you had the sense that markets were slowly turning their focus and attention to central banks again as the SVB fallout recedes.
But then came along Credit Suisse's own debacle as its top shareholder, the Saudi National Bank, says that it is not going to offer further financial assistance to the bank. That saw credit swaps blow up with the curve inverting deeply as markets are pricing in a serious risk of a default by the Swiss bank.
Bond yields plunged sharply with 2-year Treasury yields now down 23 bps to 3.99% and 2-year German bond yields down 33 bps to 2.59% on the day. That is a far cry from the highs seen earlier as the volatile swings continue in the bond market.
Banking stocks were pummeled with Credit Suisse itself down by over 20% and US futures, which were flattish at the start of the session, are now down heavily with European indices bordering on 3-4% losses across the board.
In FX, we are starting to finally see some action as the dollar and yen picked up strong bids while the euro and franc tumbled amid more idiosyncratic risks affecting the respective currencies.
EUR/USD fell from 1.0730 to just below 1.0600 now, down 1.3% on the day while USD/CHF moved up from 0.9150 to a high of 0.9260, before settling around 0.9215 now - up 0.8%.
USD/JPY was also a notable mover as it climbed up to hit 135.00 briefly before the turn in the bond market saw the pair fall all the way down to 133.40.
It's now over to Wall Street to see how they will look upon their European counterparts to handle the mess and let's also not forget that we have the UK budget coming up.