This has to be one of the quickest repricing of odds to a Fed meeting that I can remember. In essence, the market is taking the lead and is pricing in a move to near 4% as the terminal rate by May 2023. The timing outlined for the end of this tightening cycle is once again being drawn closer, though the market is expecting an extremely aggressive Fed - more than what has been communicated.

In essence, the Fed's guidance is looking meaningless and if they get bullied into such decision-making in the coming meetings, it is going to be hard to imagine how they would be able to tame the wildness in the market over the past few days. In any case, at least things are going to be spicy regardless. 🌶️

Don't you just love a good dose of volatility?