JP Morgan's bullish analyst Kolanovic is ... still bullish. Comments (in brief) from his note:

  • it is not that we think that the world and economies are in great shape

but ...

  • we do not see (a recession) as base case over the next 12 months
  • In fact, we see global growth accelerating ... to 3.1% in the second half
  • and inflation declining to 4.2%
  • which would allow central banks to pivot and avoid producing an economic downturn


  • but just that an average investor expects an economic disaster, and if that does not materialize risky asset classes could recover most of their losses from the first half


The S&P500 has had a bad H1:

spx daily 28 June 2022