Lower stocks.Lower (off highs I mean) yields.Lower dollar.The storyline is shifting a bit.

The story is shifting a bit today and it is worth noting. It may be quarter end, but it may be a shift.

That shift is stocks are lower on the day admittedly off lows but still down 1.3% to 2.72%. The US yields are mixed with the 2 year up about 10 basis points, but the 10 year only up about 2.4 basis points (yields were higher but are now near lows for the day). The USD meanwhile is moving lower.

Is the storyline:

• Fed will tighten to a hard landing and get it wrong again
• Yields are battling between higher Fed rates and slower growth
• Dollar is foreshadowing investors dumping US assets more
• Stocks are reacting to higher rates, slower global growth, lower earnings, lower valuations. Its in the math now vs the anything else. If earnings per share are to be marked lower and there is also a markdown in the mulitple for the trailing earnings, the S&P will go lower. The Fed is intent to take rates higher and keep them higher for a while.

Looking at the major currency pairs:

EURUSD EUR/USD The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars. Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, be The EUR/USD is the currency pair encompassing the European Union’s single currency, the euro (symbol €, code EUR), and the dollar of the United States (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many euros are needed in order to purchase one dollar. For example, when the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2, it means 1 euro is equivalent to 1.2 dollars. Why the EUR/USD is the Most Popular Trading PairCompared to all tradable currencies, the euro (EUR) is the world’s second most traded currency, be Read this Term: The EURUSD is above its 200 hour MA at 0.9778 and has also moved above the 50% of the move down from the September 20 high. The sellers are seeing the buyers outmuscle a bit at the key technical area

GBPUSD GBP/USD The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a Read this Term: The GBPUSD is above its 50% and 200 hour MA near 1.10455. Again the buyers are outmuscling the sellers at the key risk level and the sellers are being forced to buy.

USDJPY: The USDJPY dipped below the 100 hour MA at 144.325. Yesterday buyers leaned. Earlier today the buyers leaned. Are the leaning buyers losing now?

AUDUSD: The AUDUSD has been trading above and below the 100 hour MA and is higher despite the sharp fall in stocks. HMMMM> The 100 hour MA comes in at 0.6474

NZDUSD: Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD is trading above its 100 hour MA despite the sharp fall in stocks. THe pair is still marginally lower on the day but the falling 100 hour MA and the price above that MA now is offsetting that dynamic.

The story is a bit different. It may be month end/quarter end so on the lookout for failures in the technicals, but the moves and shifts are not going unnoticed. You should be paying attention as well.