That figure is lower than the $87.80 consensus seen last month, despite the news that China is staying firmly on course to re-opening its economy. Meanwhile, Brent crude is seen averaging $89.37 next year and that forecast is down from the $93.65 consensus from the November survey.
According to the poll, the impact of sanctions on Russian oil is expected to be minimal with Goldman Sachs noting that "we do not expect an impact from the price cap, which was designed to give bargaining power to third-country buyers".
It seems like for now, the softening global outlook is weighing on sentiment as the market seems to be fearing a hit to demand amid a recession in most major economies. But China will be a key factor to be mindful of in the first half of the year I would say, before we start to see how market players will take to the recession fears and potential reversal of the central bank tightening cycle.
As for the oil market itself, conditions remain tight and the lack of investment are still two key drivers to be wary of in the longer-term outlook.
