The July US jobs report is due Friday at 8:30 am ET. It's a clear case of where 'bad news is good news' as the market wants to see some cooling in hiring so the Fed can slow rate hikes. In addition, there will be a very close watch on wage data.
- Consensus estimate +250K
- Private +230K
- June +372K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.6% vs 3.6% prior
- Participation rate consensus 62.2% prior
- Prior underemployment U6 prior 6.7%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.9% y/y vs +5.1% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
Here's the July jobs story so far:
- ISM services employment 49.1 vs 47.4 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 49.6 vs 47.3 prior
- Challenger Job Cuts rose 36.3% in July vs June’s 58.8%
- Philly employment 19.4 vs 28.1 prior
- Empire employment 18.0 vs 19.0 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 261K vs 240K last month
- ADP report not being published at the moment as it's revamped
Acording to BMO:
Seasonally, headline payrolls have a slight tendency to outperform with 52% of previous reads beating forecasts and 48% missing by 82k and 60k, respectively. Meanwhile the unemployment rate has matched or been better than estimates 68% of the time and been worse than expected in 32% of instances
