ADP employment Nov 2022
  • Prior was +239K
  • Forecasts ranged from 150-241K
  • Annual pay +7.6% vs +7.7% prior
  • Goods-producing -86K vs -8K prior
  • Service-providing +213K vs +247K prior

This was the lowest since January 2021 and the drop in goods-producing jobs is a strong hint that the slowdowns we've seen in the manufacturing surveys are finally hitting the real economy and that inventory re-stocking is done.

"Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.”

The US dollar edged lower on the data. A similar kind of disappointment on Friday in the non-farm payrolls report would solidify expectations for a 50 bps Fed hike.